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Open Letter to Obama on Energy Policy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Austin for Oil-Price.net   
Thursday, 13 December 2012 09:40

     Open Letter to Obama on Energy Policy

 

 

By STEVE AUSTIN for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2012/11/26

 

 © oil-price.net 2009, all rights reserved. Permission to redistribute articles from oil-price.net on other sites can be obtained by contacting us. Redistributed articles must contain a copyright notice and a link back to http://oil-price.net as follows:

 This article was written by Oil-Price.net which provides free information on crude oil.

 

 

Congrats, Mr. President. We hope the second term, you know, without the burden of having to face another election, doesn't make you complacent. You must be wondering why we - dealing predominantly with oil and its cousins - are writing to you. Well, we'll come to that. In March you said, "We can't have an energy strategy for the last century that traps us in the past. We need an energy strategy for the future – an all-of-the-above strategy for the 21st century that develops every source of American-made energy." Well said, but then, all strategies are planned for the future. Who can, Mr. President, plan for the past? (Er, not even you, the most powerful man on the planet). Let's leave it there and talk about:

 

 

First coal

 

Well, it isn't so 'cool' to talk about dirty coal as, say, nuclear, gas, wind or solar energy. But, we have our reasons. Frankly, we wanted to talk exclusively about oil. With the layoff of 160 workers by Murray Energy that would have been a travesty of whatever we were to write.

There are but a few advocates for coal as a source of energy. Indeed, there ought to be no place for a polluting material as filthy as coal on the planet. No one of sound mind would support coal as THE Yet. fuel, remember, we are talking about a region with the second largest 'recoverable' coal reserves in the world. Electricity and coal, Mr. President, are still bedfellows. According to EIA (Energy Information Administration), coal accounted for 42 percent of the electricity generated in the US in 2011. 'Clean coal' as you say is- oh, come on. You think putting in severe restrictions, like control on the mercury emission, will curtail coal based power plants. In fact, they may. Already, export of coal is on the increase and India might well become the second biggest consumer of coal in two years. Soon, back home, the Environment Agency will come up with a new set of rules for power plants. So, all we say is 'slow down'. The best thing to do is not do anything. As it is, cheaper gas will naturally burn down coal. Surely, you'd have heard of the cries to avoid mixing ideology and policy. As if it were that easy. There are, according to the latest coal report of the EIA-again - 91,611 employees in the coal mines of your country. Let's shed a tear for them.

 

Now, to oil

Well, things are looking up. We are not saying this with an ironic twist, as you suspect. We do know that oil and gasoline prices are, well, determined by market forces. Still, you can take heart from the recent positive news. Like, US could become the world's biggest oil producer, according to the latest World energy Outlook released by of IEA (International Energy Agency), by 2020. (Still a bit too early to ask: where is this Saudi Arabia?) In this route, the economy will move northwards too. IEA says that the energy map of the world "is being redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the United States." Just four years ago, the news was filled with global warming, energy scarcity, job losses and high oil prices. Now, there is plenty of (potential) oil, and eh, potential jobs. Told you: good news. From 8.1 million barrels a day in 2011 to 11.1 million barrels a day in 2020 is the projected production. That's too good, isn't it? Sure enough, you may not have to engage the Middle-East through the prism of oil. You don't have to rely on expensive imports. The US could also, now, stop invading countries for oil (more on this later). All this is exciting news when seen from the 'fiscal cliff'. However, you may have to overcome the 'fracking revolution.' There's one underway-yes. For the US to become the leading producer of oil in the world, it has to rely on fracking to extract oil and gas from shale. Fracking is the process where water, sand and chemicals are pumped into the ground at high pressure to blast the rocks/shale to extract the fossil fuels. Fracking causes massive pollution to soil, air and water, hence the protest against the process. In spite of new technologies- like hydraulic fracturing and hydraulic drilling- that have helped recover previously inaccessible hydrocarbons- shale gas extraction retains its polluting rank. Bit tricky: if you have to come true on your promise of cutting oil imports by half in 2020, you'll have to rely on shale gas, Mr. President. In a similar situation, your predecessor tried to bring in biofuels, if you care to look at history. With high grain prices, that effort is losing its sheen. Here's a thought- how about improving the infrastructure for exports and better pipelines to the grid? Indeed, we are talking about the Keystone XL pipeline, a necessity as the $20 difference between a barrel of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oilkeeps rising for the world to see.

Also, would you put an damper on subsidies given to the oil industry? Just so that the oil companies will pass it on to the consumers, you know. Arguably, higher oil production doesn't mean lower oil prices as oil extraction in the US is still expensive. Several other industries receive subsidies with strings attached. It's only fair that oil subsidies come with somewhat of a guarantee for US tax-payers who subsidize them.

 

Climate change

 

After Sandy, the climate change is back in focus, as it should be. As it turns out, we'd like to point out how things were in 2008 when you were quite passionate about the whole issue. In your first term in office, the bill to 'cap-and-trade' to curb the noxious carbon emissions had a rather premature death, and the solar manufacturer, Solyndra declared bankruptcy much like those greedy bankers. Still, the stimulus given as subsidies to wind, solar and biomass were unprecedented in the history of the US itself. An extension to the subsidies, perhaps? Why, even if you want to hand over tax breaks to the renewable sector, we understand, you'll need congressional support. Who said 'green energy' was easy? The solar manufacturers are facing a massive Chinese challenge and cheaper gas is giving stiff challenge to renewables. So, a fillip to renewable energy could help US become the world's second biggest source of power generation by 2012, says the IEA, as renewables are 'indispensable part of the global energy mix'. Hey, we do love solar and wind energy, and if the focus shifts to them that would be a mighty step forward.

 

Fuel efficiency?

 

Would you impose stricter fuel efficiency standards for vehicles? Then again, this is going to put pressure on the US refineries. How, you may ask. With stringent fuel standards, the oil demand could fall, you should be aware. As it is, oil consumption dropped in the U.S. last year. On the other hand, global demand for oil is expected to increase to 99.7 million barrels a day in 2035. Well, as you know, the US refineries aren't the best in the world and some of them burnt billions to upgrade and refine heavier crude from imports. With more supply, oil stagnation comes into play. Complex, but there's a solution, and here it comes: the policies do not support crude exports. So, why not lift the crude export ban?

You may understand, now, why we made a point to write to you. We've been saddled with you for another four years. You have arrived at the white house in spite of unfulfilled promises, sluggish growth and record unemployment figures. Of course, we are writing to you assuming you have greater power to make decisions in the energy sector. Of course, we realize that the House of Representatives is tethered to the hands of the Republicans and that you'll be battling budget deficits but if this term of yours is devoted to regulation, more regulation and higher energy costs, that would be such a remarkable pity.

Before we sign off, one more plea (please). When religious extremist threaten to disrupt everything associated with oil, do take their threat more seriously, e.g. not pandering to Iran, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, in other words, militants, dictators, belligerent Islamists and kings the world over. Pandering to those guys is submitting to extremism and encouraging their behavior. To know more on this issue, do read our previous article.

Good Luck!

 

 

 
Last Updated on Thursday, 13 December 2012 10:10
 
North Dakota Oil Boom PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Austin for OIL-PRICE.NET   
Thursday, 04 October 2012 09:57

 North Dakota Oil Boom

 


 

The Bakken formation spanning North Dakota, Montana and part of Canada contains more oil than the Persian Gulf.

North Dakota Oil Boom 

By STEVE AUSTIN for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2012/08/13

 

This article was written by <a href="http://oil-price.net/en/articles/north-dakota-oil-boom.php">Oil-Price.net</a> which provides free information on crude oil.

Readers of oil-price.net have often wondered why the US isn't self-sufficient in oil, that is, in spite of the perceived abundant reserves. They may have a point, just so. Let's take a case to illustrate the oft repeated gasp -Why do we import oil, still. North Dakota.

North Dakota is the second largest producer of oil in the US, next only to Texas. In the last two years, oil output from North Dakota more than doubled, multiplied by five since 2006. With over 600,000 barrel/month, North Dakota now supplants Alaska in oil production. With the insatiable demand for oil, North Dakota satisfies three percent of the US oil consumption. It also accounts for ten percent of all US oil production. For more promises of better things in the oil field, there is Bakken.

Bakken, to explain it further, is the largest oil formation discovered in the last forty years. The estimated amount of oil in the Bakken Shale Formation is said to be 900 billion barrels. For a comparison, if you may, Bakken has more oil than the entire Persian Gulf (747 billion barrels). According to the U.S. Geological Survey, this oil formation is located in the Williston Basin, and is the largest 'continuous-type' oil accumulation ever assessed, stretching from Canada into North Dakota and Montana. Appetizing, isn't it? More so, if one considers the country's dependence on crude imports.

Let's take a brief look at the import scenario. In May, crude imports surged to 8.909 million barrels a day, according to reports from the Energy Information Administration, a 3.7% increase from April, and highest since October 2011- in spite of the rising contribution from North Dakota. Canada is the largest supplier of crude as of May (2.378mn b/d) with Saudi Arabia coming second (1.465mn b/d) and Mexico third (at 956,000 b/d). Of course, the consumption of oil in the country rose from a year ago too. According to EIA, the oil demand in the US climbed to 18.707 million barrels per day in May. This is 1.87 percent more than the projected estimate. Just reinforces the already known fact- the need for oil.

Now, what's so complex here? We have already established that there is enough oil reserves and that the need for oil is only increasing, so why not just 'drill it' - as our readers keep saying. That simple? Probably not. Bakken has oil, no doubt. The catch? Oil is 15,000ft deep in the Bakken Shale Formation, only a fraction of which is recoverable with today's technology. Yet, recoverable it is, and hence the oil boom- Bakken oil boom as it has come to be known. The technology used, you may have heard: Fracking.

Whether as plot in novels or at the heart of conspiracy theories, fracking has captured the popular imagination, a synopsis for any future doom associated with earthquake in the world.

And, what is fracking? It's short for Hydraulic Fracturing, a technique used to extract gas from rock formations. In this technique, mining companies drill into the rocks injecting sand, water and chemicals under high pressure to crack the rock and create fissures (called veins) in the layers underground. The fissures created by these fracking fluids allow the recoverable natural gas or oil to escape and be collected. If not for fracking many of the reserves would still be untapped. Fracking, it has to be said, is not without a series of serious drawbacks. The technique used, if you read above, is like a mini Earhquake. And, we are yet to know the effects of fracking in sensitive zones. For that matter, any place on Earth will always be a sensitive zone. Earlier the smaller quakes in Oklahoma, Colorado and Arkansas have been linked to hydraulic fracturing.

According to a report by the National Research Council, hydraulic fracturing is unlikely to trigger large earthquakes. However, the study does point to the risk of man-made seismic activity when waste water from the drilling is injected back into the ground. "While the general mechanisms that create induced seismic events are well understood, we are currently unable to accurately predict the magnitude or occurrence of such events due to the lack of comprehensive data on complex natural rock systems and the lack of validated predictive models," the study reports.

The report also notes that only two instances of tremor- one in Oklahoma of 2.8 magnitude and another in England of 2.3 magnitude- are attributed to fracking. Hold a minute. What? Read again: The report suggests that hydraulic fracturing has been confirmed to cause 'seismic events in 'a very limited number'. (The U.S. Geological Survey too acknowledges seismic disturbances with the waste water injection.) Well, minor or major, it's hardly a source of comfort to note that fracturing can cause earthquakes.

It doesn't stop with earthquakes. Fracking in the new veins in the ground allow water to come in contact with oil and become contaminated. Naturally, the EPA and watch groups are up in arms against fracking as it pollutes the air and contaminates the soil surface. As the long term risk to underground drinking water and to public health is no laughing matter, many countries, unsurprisingly, have banned the practice.
On the flipside, it's one of the important techniques that make the North Dakota dream possible. If not for fracking, oil in many formations would be too expensive for a conventional oil drill. If many people still support fracking, in spite of all the drawbacks, it's because of the oil potential-an important factor to reduce dependence on imports. Together with Horizontal drilling, fracking has made the North Dakota dream a possibility. Both the techniques are expensive, but the oil companies can afford, what with the oil prices averaging nearly $100 a barrel, and they are rushing in. Of course, cheap oil can bust the boom in no time. Well, that doesn't seem realistic in the near future, does it? Another equally potent dampener would be unnecessary rules-this doesn't mean that the oil companies should be given a lease to pollute as they wish. They should be made accountable for the waste water pumped, any destruction caused.

Indeed, fracking isn't the only hurdle in North Dakota. The oil revenues have climbed to $839 million in 2011, with expected revenue of $2 billion in the next two years. The population has grown phenominally-an increase of 13 percent from 2009 to 2010- but the infrastructure lacks behind the boom. The local power demand has surged even as the power companies struggle to provide. And new wells demand more power. Also, there's a lack of pipeline in the region, so oil is transported by trucks and trains. Part of the charm of North Dakota is the laidback rural ambience it's been known for. That is definitely changing reminiscent of industrial revolution or the frenzied gold boom of yesteryears. The infrastructure, though, hasn't stepped up to the challenge. The rural two lane narrow roads, not envisaged to accommodate the gargantuan trucks, suffer the most. Rebuilding the roads ravaged by the huge trucks would need massive input of funds, in fact, more than the present oil revenues. North Dakota also has problems of traffic congestion, inflation and housing crunch. It doesn't stop there. No way. The crime rate is increasing, especially thefts and burglaries, in the said oil zone. In Williston the crime rate has doubled in the decade starting 1999. So what is the next step? Slow down, add in more regulation and kill the boom? The trick is to deftly manoeuvre the resources and not kill the goose for one egg.

North Dakota: miracle or policy success?

North Dakota's oil boom coincides with Obama's arrival into office. Is this pure coincidence? Perhaps.

§  North Dakota's oil reserves are enough to make the US energy independent. For the Obama administration, energy independence is a dear goal, the pursuit of which must be realized through renewable energy. Quite the opposite of what is happening in North Dakota. Fracking, anyone?

§  North Dakota is largely (2/3) Republican. That's as red as it gets. In reality the state was shielded from Washington influence thanks in part to private oil interests. The oil boom brewed in-state, it didn't trickle down from Washington.

§  North Dakota has more than 4,000 wells producing oil and gas. In addition, 1,927 permits were issued last year, and 627 have been issued so far this year. Each drill brings in more employment and revenue. Though the oil boom in North Dakota is recent, the oil industry in North Dakota is more than five decades old.

§  Obama tiptoes around North Dakota. After all North Dakota achieved impressive results, the envy of many, by doing the opposite of Obama's agenda: relying heavily on fossil fuel extraction, with methods adverse to the environment. In Williston, there's almost nine job opening for every person looking for one. North Dakota created jobs where Obama didn't. The average household income has risen to historic heights-more than 100 percent in some towns. North Dakota allows the US to get closer to energy independence and allow $15 billion to remain in the US economy instead of being invested in terrorist-supporting nations.

With the upcoming elections, there is no doubt politicians will try to be associated with North Dakota's success story. But ironically North Dakota's success lies in its protection from government interference and free enterprise. North Dakota CAN-just let them be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Takeover of Oil by Militias PDF Print E-mail
Written by Tobias Vanderbruck for OIL-PRICE.NET   
Thursday, 04 October 2012 09:37
 Takeover of Oil by Militias

 Islamic militants understand the importance of controlling petroleum resources.

 

 Takeover of Oil by Militias

By TOBIAS VANDERBRUCK for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2012/10/01

This article was written by <a href="http://oil-price.net/en/articles/takeover-of-oil-by-militias.php">Oil-Price.net</a> which provides free information on crude oil.

Iraq wars 1 and 2 were fought as much on the ground as in the media. Embedded journalism, the war on terrorism, toppling an evil dictator and spreading freedom were all images used to instill on the public, justification for the invasion of Iraq. These wars were a paid spokesperson's dream come true: immense budgets to convince the public that they were not wars for oil. Most journalists avoided to portray these as wars for oil for the sake of their careers. How the spin doctors worked, you'd be pardoned to believe of a flat Earth the size of Texas. Not without basis, the fact is, anything is justified for oil, even mendacity.

As a result of the biased reporting from the Middle-East, our culture seems to be hit with the disease of a casual attitude to war, setting new extravagant standards in catching collective attention. Indeed, journalist attempting to report on insurgents put themselves at risk, like the female US journalist who was sexually assaulted by a mob in Egypt. Consequently very little gets shown to the public and these insurgency are romanticized as struggles for democracy, which they are not. They are struggles to control the world's resources and fund terrorism.

In fact, many of today's ongoing wars fail to capture people's attention and, unfortunately, some of these wars are taking place right under out nose. Yes, today's oil wars are happening right now. The worrying trend is that they are more numerous than ever before. Here are some:

Sudan

Essentially, it's religion at play here. The conflict: There's been two civil wars in 1956 and 1983 between a predominantly Arab Islamic North and a Non-Muslim South (Animist and Christian). Not to forget, it's been only six decades-and a few years- since the independence of Sudan itself. About a year ago South Sudan left Sudan putting an end to the civil war. But, things are far from normal. South Sudan is rich in oil with an output of 350,000 barrels per day, in other words, three quarters of a united Sudan's oil output. Naturally, Sudan still has a bad South Sudan hangover. In January, South Sudan shut off its oil production. Ask why? The landlocked country had disagreements over fees to be paid to the North for oil exports through Sudan to the Red Sea port. Rather a bold move, one has to say, as South Sudan depends on oil for up to 98 percent of its state revenue. Well, sadly, the new country didn't have money to buy food or medicine, thus. Last month, both the countries decided to resume exports from South Sudan after an interim agreement. But, according to the Finance Minister of South Sudan, the country would be able to pump only at about seventy per cent of its capacity. A development, nevertheless, even if it takes three months for the oil to reach the Red Sea Terminal at Port Sudan. Also, both the countries have agreed for further talks, which is a good sign. Still, the road ahead is long, so are the problems.

Iraq

According to a study by the International Center for Development studies, Iraq is not able allocate resources for infrastructure projects in spite of more than '$100 billion in oil reserves for 2012'. The study blames it on corruption and bureaucracy. To soak up on this, here's some background: Oil production in Iraq is about 3.2 million barrels per day, while the exports are around 2.5 million barrels per day. The proven reserves stand at about 143.1 billion barrels of oil. No wonder, countries invaded Iraq giving flimsy reasons. So, what have we got after the invasion? An Iran-influenced Islamic republic in the making. The Shia-Sunni strife has intensified after the invasion, and continues to strike Iraq at regular intervals.

Libya

Recently the US ambassador to Libya J. Christopher Stevens was killed by Islamic militants in a well-planned attack. What has the Arab spring done or undone? Reports suggest that the Ambassador was killed by militants based in Libya itself. Make no mistake; the unrest over the volatile video is just a mask to destroy any western influence in Libya. When rebel fighting broke out in Libya, it cannot to be attributed to coincidence alone that the main oil ports and facilities were taken over in the first move. Only later did the war spread to the cities. Not without reason, of course. Libya has the world's fifth largest reserves, the first in Africa. It is also a member of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). According to EIA, the crude oil production stood at 1.4 million bbl/d in May 2012. And it's anyone's guess how the political situation is going to pan out in the coming months. At present, there's growing concern over the security situation in the country. Like Iraq, there are more chances of an Islamic administration in Libya too. EIA too warns of changes in Libya's oil sector"depending upon outcomes of political processes that have yet to run their course."

Iran

As of January 2011, Iran had an estimated 137 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, 9.3 percent of the world's total reserves and over 12 percent of OPEC reserves. But, well, if one goes by the Iraqi oil minister, the country has 154.8 billion barrels of oil with new discovery of reserves in SouthWest Iran. And, the International Energy Agency has stated that the oil exports from the country stepped down to 1 million barrels a day in July from 1.74 million barrels a day in June.

Further, Iran is the second largest producer in OPEC, next only to Saudi Arabia. Crude exports contribute to about 80 percent of the foreign revenue. How profitable it'd have been for the country, then, to tone down its belligerence. Instead, Iran continues with its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is a major oil route for countries in the Persian Gulf, including Iran. In 2011, about 17 million bbl/d flowed through. At its narrowest, the strait is just 21 miles wide. Iran uses this geographical formation to its advantage, threatening to choke the strait, at regular intervals. Sadly, Islamist fundamentalist threaten to take over 20% of the world's oil traffic if the West interferes with their nuke plans.

Nigeria

In Nigeria, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), a terrorist group, has one target in mind-oil. It frequently abducts foreign employees working in oil installations, attacks oil pipelines and other installations and steals oil as well. Four years ago, MEND had almost paralysed the oil industry of Nigeria with its assaults. Nigeria has the second largest oil reserves in Africa and the world's 11th largest oil reserves. As of January 2011, Nigeria's estimated oil reserves stood at 37. 2 billion barrels. Majority of the reserves are along the Niger River Delta. Niger Delta is, thus, vital for the income of the government. In 2009, the militants had accepted a peace deal from the government in lieu of cash and employment opportunities. Yet, recently they have returned bringing violence in their wake. Compounded by infrastructure problems the Niger Delta continues as a source of contention.

The pattern is obvious: Islamic terrorist groups, foreign and domestic, are waging multitude of wars to take over smaller yet significant oil producing nations. And gradually these oil resources are falling into the hands of political Islam. Dodging these militants is becoming an almost impossible task. This should have the western world concerned as it is extremely hard and expensive for western military to fight simultaneously multiple wars at separate locations, a thing terrorists have learned from recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Will the gunning down of US ambassador in Libya be a wake-up call to the West? According to Jacques Beres, French co-founder of Doctors without Borders recently returning from a clandestine Syrian hospital, an estimated 60% of rebels fighting in Syria are foreign Islamic fighters there to set up an Islamic state under Sharia law to become part of the world emirate. This corroborates what Syrian president has been consistently saying. And Russia. And Israel. But for now western powers fail to notice the trend whereby one by one, oil-producing nations turn into mini-Irans who understand the fundamental importance of controlling the world's oil and the leverage it gives to any ideology. Just like Iran understands it.

Conclusion

All the countries mentioned above can alter the price of oil in a second. Somehow, it doesn't feel fair that the ordinary person on the street has to pay the price for the takeover of oil rich nations by religious extremists, does it?

Oil wars are ongoing as we speak. Not only are oil resources depleting worldwide but key ones are falling into the hands of the enemy. The smaller size of these conflicts and the absence of western involvement force them under the media's radar and the public's attention. With Iran likely less than 4 years away from nukes, the next administration's stance on the issue will be capital to the world's survival, as we know it.

 

 

Last Updated on Thursday, 04 October 2012 09:51
 
Strait of Hormuz and Oil Price Rise PDF Print E-mail
Written by Tobias Vanderbruck for OIL-PRICE.NET   
Thursday, 09 August 2012 12:09

Iran's 1,150HP Zolfaqhar mass-produced speedboats can cruise at 80 knots and launch anti-ship missiles. Fast and nimble, they supposedly can bypass Raytheon's Ship Self Defense System (SDSS) by attacking US heavyweight warship in swarms from several directions concurrently.

 

 

 Strait of Hormuz and Oil Price Rise 

By TOBIAS VANDERBRUCK for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2012/07/30

This article was written by "http://oil-price.net/en/articles/strait-of-hormuz-and-oil-price-rise.php"

Oil-Price.net which provides free information on crude oil.

 

The Strait of Hormuz is in the news again. The Iranian parliament is considering a bill that threatens to close this Strait to oil tankers from countries that support sanctions imposed on Iran. More than half of the members of parliament are said to have signed the bill.

Before that, what is Strait of Hormuz? The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic shipping route connecting Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. The US Energy Information Administration characterizes the strait as "the world's most important oil chokepoint." In 2011, the strait witnessed a daily flow of 17 million barrels of oil per day. This is almost 20% of world's traded oil and roughly 35% of all seaborne traded oil, the agency reports. Further, the EIA estimates that on an average, 14 crude tankers pass through the waterway per day, with almost the same number of empty tankers entering it. The chokepoint? At the narrowest point, the Strait is just 21 miles wide. Blocking this neck, theoretically at least, is an easy possibility for Iran, cutting away nearly one fifth of the world's traded oil. Note also that this is a major shipping route for crude exported from Saudi Arabia (the world's second largest oil exporter), Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and UAE. Almost 85% of the export is for Asian markets like Japan, India, South Korea and China.

The draft bill is said to be Iran's retaliation for the economic sanctions imposed on it by the US and European Union. The sanctions aim to curtail Iran's nuclear ambitions, especially using Uranium to develop weapons. Iran, meanwhile, insist that the reactors are for medical and electricity uses only.

Could Iran close the Strait?

The answer is an emphatic no. After all, the US' Fifth Fleet is stationed nearby. Iran would only be giving excuses for an invasion. In addition, leaked US diplomatic cables, from as early as 2010, show Saudi Arabia urging the US to attack Iran and destroy the nuclear programme (Thanks Wikileaks). Thus in the event of a war, the US may receive support even from the Arab world. Not a bad bargaining position for the world's superpower. On the other hand, if a blockade were to occur in the Strait even Iran's oil would stagnate. So, the new hostile resolution could be just empty noise.
Still, "just noise" from Iran could do a lot of damage to oil prices. Why does Iran create all these noises, empty or not? Mostly to increase oil prices to sustain oil revenues from China and India. Notwithstanding threats of US sanctions on institutions doing business with Iran and though China and India are actively looking for oil elsewhere, at present, a significant portion of their oil imports comes from Iran. Namely, 10% of India's total crude import and 12% of China's are Iranian (as of June). The higher the prices, the better it is for Iran. Remember the Arab Spring unrest and how Iran, together with Libya, managed to send oil prices to $128 a barrel? In the past, any threats from Iran, even if unfounded, have boosted the oil prices.

If Iran does choke the Strait, How?

Iran can block the narrow waterway by using mines, mini submarines, suicide squads or missile-ladden speedboats. Even one of these is enough to ignite a war in the region. Of course, a head-on confrontation with the US would be nothing short of suicide for Iran. Instead, it will certainly employ "guerrilla warfare", of the same kind it has supported for decades around the world with Hezbollah, Iraqi insurgents and Afghanistan. And the resulting uncertainty brought by the situation will disseminate panic sending oil prices higher.

Some guerrilla tactics Iran will likely employ:

Harassing oil tankers in the Strait

Using it as a leverage for nuclear talks with the world powers.

Security search and checks of oil tankers.  Other than delay, this could also create unrest in the region.

Deploying Ghadir miniature submarines so they appear on tankers Sonars.

Publicizing its intention to scatter mines in the strait.  Even though Iran has an estimated 2,000 anti-ship mines, the mines don’t have to be there.  But a mere rumor will deter civilian tankers from cruising the Strait.

Iran's Ghadir miniature submarines are smaller than some whales and thus a real challenge for sonar systems to discern.

No amount of US warship will prevent insurance companies to raise insurance premiums trough the roof on multi-billion tankers once it is known that Iran is acting with hostility in these waters and this will be enough to send the price of oil up. That's all Iran wants.
A similar situation, the "Tanker War", occurred 30 years ago. In 1984, Iraq attacked Iranian tankers and an oil terminal at Kharg Island. Iran retaliated by attacking Iraqi oil tankers. In what's known as the "Tanker war," the two countries attacked oil ports and oil tankers belonging to the other. The US and the then Soviet Navy entered the fray only in 1987, providing protection for Kuwait ships. US started acting against Iran and relations between the countries deteriorated from then on.

Unlike during the Tanker War, Iran is not in direct war with the US and western world. But it has indirectly been fighting US and western forces by supporting terrorism and Islamic insurgents on the theater of war and sees itself in a holy war against the West. Iran will likely employ the same deceitful tactics in harassing oil tankers and disrupting the distribution of oil. Forget Ideology - Iran needs the money.

Compared to western civilized societies, Iran remains in large an under-developed poverty-stricken nation ruled by ruthless theocrats. Since its non-competitive workforce is not a suitable tax base for its government's hegemonic aspiration, Iran has to rely almost exclusively of oil revenues to finance its government, police, army, hospitals and institutions. Most of its influence on the rest of the Arab worlds, its financial backing of Hezbollah is solely made possible by oil revenues. But cut these oil revenues and the proverbial goose that laid golden eggs is gone; without a market for its oil, Iran will likely face overwhelming domestic unrest leading soon to a civil war.

In fact, the US is all too familiar with the importance of the strait. Consequently plans are underway to develop alternative routes to bypass the strait. With US support UAE opened the new pipeline of Habshan-Fujairah in June 2012. This 220 mile long pipeline with a capacity of 1.5 million barrels a day is designed to bring oil from the UAE and Oman to the Fujairah export terminal, past the Strait of Hormuz. This port is well away from Iranian territorial waters and is guarded by the US fleet so that any possible threat can be addressed decidedly. The Saudi Arabian East-West pipeline from Abqaiq on the Red Sea, is another alternative, though the capacity is much less than the traffic in Strait of Hormuz. Considering that Iran's major clients are in Asia, one alternative is to transport oil through Suez canal. Expensive and dangerous, still a possibility. Iran too is building a new terminal at Bandar Jask in a bid to decrease the over reliance on the said strait. Oil can also be transported via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. The UAE is also constructing the Abu Dhabi oil Pipeline ending at the port of Fujairah.

Back to the draft bill: According to a top Iranian Naval commander, the country would not close the Strait as it is vital for its economy too. Yet, Iran does have the capability to disturb oil supplies and prices by different threats. This bill could well be the beginning of a formal start to a series.

© oil-price.net 2009, all rights reserved.

 

Last Updated on Thursday, 09 August 2012 12:18
 
Actions, Not Words Will Determine Our Energy Future PDF Print E-mail
Written by The Oklahoman   
Thursday, 26 July 2012 13:17

An Open Letter to President Obama: Actions, Not Words, Will Determine Our Energy Future

 

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

This op-ed was first published by The Oklahoman on March 21, 2012

From: Harold Hamm, Aubrey McClendon, Larry Nichols and Tom Ward:

Welcome to Oklahoma, Mr. President. We hope you develop a better understanding of the oil and gas industry, one of the largest and most vibrant sectors in the U.S., during your visit. As Americans, we share a mutual desire to power our nation with homegrown energy sources. We join you in wanting to secure our energy future by lessening our dangerous dependency on imported oil.

Mr. President, no energy source can do more good for America than domestic oil and gas. Take jobs. You often mention the need for more well-paying jobs. Our companies are creating them — in particular, tens of thousands of every skill level from rig workers and truck drivers to top-flight engineers and PhDs.

The paradigm shift in American oil and gas exploration and production is the brightest spot in our struggling economy. Keeping it going requires understanding of some critical business realities:

Approval of the entire Keystone XL Pipeline should happen now — not after the election. Yes, we are pleased TransCanada decided to build a critical section of the project from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. We note this section does not require State Department approval. However, America's greatest benefit will come when we can transport oil from our best energy partner, Canada, and oil-rich North Dakota and Montana.

Private sector innovation led to the combination of horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing resulting in the most significant resource revolution in the nation's history. The safe and responsible application of these technologies have added new proven gas and oil reserves once inconceivable, and it has made U.S. energy independence a distinct possibility in just the next 10 years. We have now safely and successfully fracture treated 1.2 million wells in the U.S. since 1948 and more than 45,000 wells in 2011 — a safety record that would be the envy of any industry in the U.S.

As large independent energy companies, we almost always reinvest more than we receive from selling oil and gas production. Therefore, punitive tax increases such as eliminating the business deduction of drilling costs or selectively increasing the energy industry's corporate tax rate by abolishing deductions available to other manufacturers, would give us no option but to reduce our drilling programs resulting in fewer jobs and higher prices.

Our industry invests billions of dollars to ensure our operations are conducted in an environmentally responsible manner. However, with more than a dozen federal agencies in your Administration proposing, planning or implementing new regulations — for little or no environmental benefit — there is considerable risk that increased costs and bureaucratic delays will cripple America's energy production and halt the renaissance underway in our nation's steel, plastics, chemical and agricultural industries.

The newfound abundance of oil and gas in America creates for the first time in 50 years the opportunity to break OPEC's headlock on the American economy and reinvigorate America's industrial foundation.

Mr. President, your words suggest you want the economic benefits American natural gas and oil can deliver. We hope your actions follow suit — to date they have not.

The authors lead Oklahoma City-based large independent oil and gas exploration and production companies: Continental Resources, Chesapeake Energy, Devon Energy and SandRidge Energy.

 

 

 

Last Updated on Thursday, 09 August 2012 12:28
 
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